The assessment of winter wheat yield (Triticum aestivum L.) by the value of spectral vegetation NDVI and moisture supply limit is the purpose of this article. The mathematical expectation of the vegetation index function corresponds to a value of 0.83 ± 0.05 (standard deviation 0.18, coefficient of variation 0.23) is showed by analysis of satellite data and the NDVI plot. The possible yield for the arrival of solar photosynthetically active radiation according to the method of A.A. Nichiporovich, reduced to standard humidity, is estimated at 72.79 centners per hectare. At the NDVI level near the vicinity of the median and maximum 0.8... 0.9, the economically useful yield can be 60.41 centners per hectare.The total water consumption during the growing season was 199.3 mm for Triticum aestivum L. Then the potential yield of the crop based on the conditions of moisture supply of the territory will be 122 centners per hectare, and taking into account NDVI according to the model of the authors of this study – 102.1 centners per hectare, for a standard humidity of 14% – 47.5 centners per hectare. The actual yield obtained on the farm is at the level of 59.1 centners per hectare. The error of the yield forecast for PAR and NDVI is within 2.5%, and for the level of moisture supply and NDVI – 19.7%.