The scientific article conducts a theoretical and economic study of the problems of ensuring food security through import substitution, import and export of milk. A review of the scientific literature showed the relevance of the study; many domestic and foreign scientists are directing their scientific interests to the development of an effective mechanism for ensuring the development of agricultural production sectors, and in particular the dairy product complex. In the field of interest of scientists are the problems of ensuring growth in production volumes, the prospects for reducing and completely eliminating the import of milk, as well as the possibility of increasing milk exports in certain regions. For the period from 2013 to 2022, according to official statistics, we observe an increase in milk production volumes, while in 2015 a decrease of 0.4% was detected, and in 2016 by 0.3%. Over the past three years, milk imports do not exceed 18% of the total dairy resource, which indicates food security at the level of 83%. The growth rate of milk exports significantly exceeds the growth rate of its imports; their value has crossed the mark of 114%. It was revealed that the growth of milk volumes was significantly influenced by the annual increase in cow productivity in the ten-year study period; a decrease in milk production volumes was observed in those periods when the number of animals decreased significantly. A slight decrease in milk production volumes in 2015 and 2016 did not have a detrimental effect on milk sales volumes; milk sales volumes, according to official statistics, have been trending upward over the past 10 years.