UDC 314.15
UDC 519.86
The purpose of the study is to develop a methodological framework for modeling active longevity under conditions of demographic aging and economic sanctions. The relevance of the research is determined by accelerating population aging processes, the need to achieve the strategic life expectancy targets of the Russian Federation, and the influence of external economic constraints on healthcare and social welfare systems. The study employs comparative analysis, demographic analysis, systems approach, index modeling, and econometric modeling methods. A system of quantitative indicators is proposed, including the Active Longevity Index, Active Aging Coefficient, Demographic Dependency Ratio, Target Longevity Achievement Model, and an Integrated Active Longevity Model. International and Russian experiences in implementing active longevity policies are examined. The findings indicate that population aging is a multidimensional phenomenon requiring comprehensive public policy responses. Current demographic trends are shown to complicate the achievement of strategic life expectancy targets without additional policy interventions. The proposed models provide a quantitative framework for evaluating the effectiveness of active longevity programs and may be applied in decision-making processes at both regional and national levels.
active longevity, population aging, demographic dependency, life expectancy, economic sanctions, index modeling, econometric modeling, public policy, quality of life of older adults
1. United Nations. Population // [Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://www.un.org/ru/sections/issues-depth/population/index.html (Date of access: 01/06/26).
2. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The world Population Prospects:2015 Revision //[Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/publications/world-population-prospects-2015-revision.html (Date of access: 01/06/26).
3. United Nations. Ageing //[Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/ageing/ (Date of access: 01/06/26).
4. Burtseva T.A., Gagarina S.N., Chausov N.Y. Quality of life assessment of the older population at the substantiation of active longevity strategies in the context of structural demographic changes. Vestnik Universiteta. 2019;(2):5-12. (In Russ.) Access mode: https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2019-2-5-12 (Date of access: 01/06/26).
5. World Health Organization. Global Health and Ageing. // [Electronic resource]: Access mode:https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/186463/9789244565049_rus.pdf?se (Date of access: 01/06/26).
6. Pestova, Anna and Mamonov, Mikhail, Should We Care?: The Economic Effects of Financial Sanctions on the Russian Economy (July 29, 2019). BOFIT Discussion Paper No. 13/2019. // [Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/bitstream/handle/123456789/16219/dp1319.pdf?sequence=3 (Date of access: 01/06/26)
7. Russian Statistical Yearbook 2018. Statistical Handbook // [Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://www.gks.ru/free_doc/doc_2018/year/year18.pdf (Date of access: 01/06/26).
8. The Lancet Public Health. Science magazine. Angela Y Chang, Vegard F Skirbekk, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Joseph L Dieleman : Measuring population ageing: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (vol. 4 March 2019) : Pages: e159–67.// [Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2819%2930019-2 (Date of access: 01/06/26)
9. Presidential Executive Order No.204 dated May 7, 2018 On National Goals and Strategic Objectives of the Russian Federation through 2024 [Electronic resource]: Access mode: http://kremlin.ru/acts/bank/43027 (Access date: 01/06/26)
10. Human Development Indices and Indicators. 2018 Statistical Update // [Electronic resource]: Access mode: http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/2018_human_development_statistical_update.pdf (Access date: 01/07/26)
11. Updated Demographic Forecast until 2036 (December 28, 2019). Rosstat Access mode: : https://gks.ru/folder/313/document/72529 (Access date:01/07/26).
12. The Strategy of Actions for the Benefit of Senior Citizens in the Russian Federation up to 2025 approved by the Government Order dated 5 February 2016 No.164-r [Electronic resource] // Access mode: https://rosmintrud.ru/docs/government/173 (Access date: 01/07/26).
13. Sanctions: Impact on Economy and Life. Public Opinion Foundation. // [Electronic resource]: Access mode: https://fom.ru/Ekonomika/14232 (Access date: 01/06/26)
14. On education in the Russian Federation: Federal law dated December 29, 2012. № 273-FL(latest revision) // [Electronic resource]: Access mode: http://www.consultant.ru/document/cons_doc_LAW_140174/ (Access date: 01/07/26)
15. World Health Organization. World Report on Ageing and Health. Geneva: WHO; 2015.
16. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. World Population Ageing 2019. New York: United Nations; 2019.
17. European Commission. Active Ageing Index 2018: Analytical Report. Brussels: European Commission; 2019.
18. Zaidi A., Gasior K., Hofmarcher M.M., et al. Active Ageing Index 2018: Analytical Report. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union; 2019.
19. United Nations. Handbook of Population Ageing and Development. New York: United Nations; 2017.
20. Walker A., Maltby T. Active Ageing: A Strategic Policy Solution to Demographic Ageing in the European Union // International Journal of Social Welfare. 2012. Vol. 21. Suppl. 1. P. S117–S130.
21. Bloom D.E., Canning D., Fink G. Implications of Population Ageing for Economic Growth // Oxford Review of Economic Policy. 2010. Vol. 26. No. 4. P. 583–612.
22. Beard J.R., Officer A., de Carvalho I.A., et al. The World Report on Ageing and Health: A Policy Framework for Healthy Ageing // The Lancet. 2016. Vol. 387. No. 10033. P. 2145–2154.
23. Rowe J.W., Kahn R.L. Successful Aging 2.0: Conceptual Expansions for the 21st Century // Journals of Gerontology: Series B. 2015. Vol. 70. No. 4. P. 593–596.
24. Bloom D.E., Chatterji S., Kowal P., et al. Macroeconomic Implications of Population Ageing and Selected Policy Responses // The Lancet. 2015. Vol. 385. No. 9968. P. 649–657.
25. Burceva, T. A. Strategii i sposoby dostizheniya aktivnogo dolgoletiya v usloviyah ekonomicheskih sankciy / T. A. Burceva, A. A. Sidorov, L. A. Shapet'ko // Moskovskiy ekonomicheskiy zhurnal. – 2020. – № 9. – S. 51. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.24411/2413-046X-2020-10642. – EDN NAKNSR.
26. Sidorov, A. A. Ekonometricheskoe modelirovanie faktorov aktivnogo dolgoletiya na osnove dannyh o zabolevaemosti / A. A. Sidorov // Colloquium-Journal. – 2020. – № 1-8(53). – S. 87-89. – DOIhttps://doi.org/10.24411/2520-6990-2019-11201. – EDN RWXPXR.
